10.6 Practice Problems
Problem 10.6.1. Data are available only as averages for \(J\) income groups: group \(j\) contains \(n_j\) households, with average food expenditure \(\bar Y_j\) and average income \(\bar X_j\). The household relation is \(Y = \alpha + \beta X + u\) with independent disturbances of constant variance \(\sigma ^2\).
- (a)
- Find the variance of the disturbance in the regression of \(\bar Y_j\) on \(\bar X_j\).
- (b)
- Write the GLS estimator of \(\beta \) explicitly.
- (c)
- Explain why least squares on the group averages is unbiased but inefficient, and why its conventional standard errors are wrong.
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Solution. (a) \(\bar u_j\) is the average of \(n_j\) independent disturbances, so \(\Var (\bar u_j) = \sigma ^2/n_j\).
(b) GLS multiplies each group’s equation by \(\sqrt {n_j}\), which is weighted least squares with weights \(n_j\): \[ b_{\text {GLS}} = \frac {\sum _jn_j(\bar X_j - \bar X_w)(\bar Y_j - \bar Y_w)}{\sum _jn_j(\bar X_j - \bar X_w)^2}, \] where \(\bar X_w = \sum n_j\bar X_j/\sum n_j\) and \(\bar Y_w\) are the weighted means, the overall household means. This is exactly the least squares estimate on the individual data with each household’s values replaced by its group means.
(c) \(E(\bar u_j) = 0\), so least squares is unbiased; but it gives every group the same weight, whatever its size, so it is not BLUE (Aitken). Its conventional variance assumes a common variance across groups, while the true variances differ by the factor \(1/n_j\).
Problem 10.6.2. In the model \(Y_i = \alpha + \beta X_i + u_i\), the disturbances are independent with \(\Var (u_i) = \sigma ^2X_i^2\), \(X_i > 0\).
- (a)
- Find the transformation that makes the disturbances homoscedastic, and write the transformed regression.
- (b)
- In the transformed regression, which coefficient is the intercept and which the slope?
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Solution. (a) Divide by \(X_i\): \(Y_i/X_i = \beta + \alpha (1/X_i) + u_i/X_i\), with \(\Var (u_i/X_i) = \sigma ^2\).
(b) \(\beta \) becomes the intercept and \(\alpha \) the coefficient on \(1/X_i\), as in Example 10.4.2. A common error is to forget this exchange of roles and report the transformed intercept as if it were \(\alpha \).
Problem 10.6.3. For a sample of 60 firms ordered by size, the Goldfeld–Quandt test is applied with the middle 12 firms omitted, to a regression with \(k = 3\) coefficients. The residual sums of squares are \(\text {RSS}_1 = 24.8\) for the 24 smallest firms and \(\text {RSS}_2 = 61.3\) for the 24 largest. Carry out the test at the \(5\%\) level.
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Solution. Each subset has \(24 - 3 = 21\) degrees of freedom, so \(\text {GQ} = (61.3/21)/(24.8/21) = 2.47\). The \(5\%\) point of \(F_{21,21}\) is about \(2.08\), so homoscedasticity is rejected: the larger firms have a larger disturbance variance. The test is one-sided, because the alternative specified that the variance increases with size.
Problem 10.6.4. Consider a regression of \(Y\) on an intercept and a dummy variable \(D\), with \(n_1\) observations having \(D = 0\) and \(n_2\) having \(D = 1\), so that the slope estimates the difference between the two group means, \(\bar Y_2 - \bar Y_1\). Show that the HC0 standard error of the slope is \[ \sqrt {\frac {\hat \sigma _1^2}{n_1} + \frac {\hat \sigma _2^2}{n_2}}, \qquad \hat \sigma _j^2 = \frac {1}{n_j}\sum _{i\in j}(Y_i - \bar Y_j)^2 , \] while the conventional standard error uses a pooled variance. Which is appropriate if the two groups have different variances?
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Solution. The fitted values are the group means, so the residuals are deviations from the group means. With the regressors \((1, D)\) the slope is \(\bar Y_2 - \bar Y_1\), a linear function \(\sum c_iY_i\) with \(c_i = -1/n_1\) in group 1 and \(1/n_2\) in group 2. The sandwich variance of such a function is \(\sum c_i^2e_i^2\), which is \(\sum _{i\in 1}e_i^2/n_1^2 + \sum _{i\in 2}e_i^2/n_2^2 = \hat \sigma _1^2/n_1 + \hat \sigma _2^2/n_2\). The conventional formula is \(s^2(1/n_1 + 1/n_2)\), with \(s^2\) the pooled variance. If the groups’ variances differ, the robust version is the right one: it is the Welch form of the two-sample \(t\) test, while the conventional form is the pooled \(t\) test, which assumes equal variances. This applies directly to the schools data of Section 8, whose variances differed by a factor of more than three.
Problem 10.6.5. Explain why a significant White test does not necessarily indicate heteroscedasticity. Give an example in which the true disturbances are homoscedastic, yet White’s test is likely to reject.
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Solution. White’s test regresses the squared residuals on the regressors, their squares and cross-products. Anything that makes the squared residuals vary systematically with these will be detected, including misspecification of the mean. Suppose the true model is \(Y = \alpha + \beta X + \gamma X^2 + u\) with homoscedastic \(u\), but \(Y\) is regressed on \(X\) alone. The residuals then contain the neglected term \(\gamma (X^2 - \text {fitted part})\), whose square is a polynomial in \(X\), so \(e_i^2\) is strongly related to \(X\) and \(X^2\) and the test rejects, although \(\Var (u)\) is constant. The test should be read as “something is wrong with the conditional mean or variance”, and the functional form checked (for example with RESET) before heteroscedasticity is concluded.
Problem 10.6.6. Prove that under homoscedasticity \(E(e_i^2) = (1 - p_{ii})\sigma ^2\), where \(p_{ii}\) is the \(i\)th leverage, and use it to justify the HC2 correction. Why does HC3 divide by \((1 - p_{ii})^2\) instead?
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Solution. \(e = MU\), so \(e_i = m_i'U\), with \(m_i'\) the \(i\)th row of \(M\), and \(E(e_i^2) = \sigma ^2m_i'm_i = \sigma ^2(M^2)_{ii} = \sigma ^2m_{ii} = \sigma ^2(1 - p_{ii})\). So \(e_i^2/(1 - p_{ii})\) is unbiased for \(\sigma ^2\) under homoscedasticity, and HC2 uses it to remove the downward bias of the raw squared residuals. HC3 approximates a jackknife. The residual of observation \(i\) when it is left out of the fit is \(e_i/(1 - p_{ii})\), so \(e_i^2/(1 - p_{ii})^2\) is the squared leave-one-out prediction error. It overcorrects slightly under homoscedasticity, but it guards against high-leverage points, whose residuals understate their disturbances most, and it performs best in small samples in simulation studies.
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