2 The Two-Variable Linear Model

Section 1 showed that the best linear predictor of \(Y\) given \(X\) always exists and is given by population moments. This section estimates it from a sample, establishes the properties of the estimator under explicit assumptions, and builds the machinery of inference: standard errors, \(t\) tests, confidence intervals and prediction intervals. Everything here is done with sums, so that the ideas are visible without matrix algebra. With the \(k\)-variable model the same results are re-derived in matrix form for any number of regressors, and the two-variable results become special cases.

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