15.7 Practice Problems
Problem 15.7.1. Let \(y_1, \dots , y_n\) be independent and uniform on \((0, \theta )\).
- (a)
- Find the method of moments estimator of \(\theta \) from \(E(y) = \theta /2\), and its asymptotic variance from Theorem 15.1.3.
- (b)
- The sample of five values \(0.8, 2.4, 1.1, 3.9, 2.3\) gives what estimate? Comment on the result.
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Solution. (a) \(g = y - \theta /2\), so \(\hat \theta = 2\bar y\). Here \(G = -\frac 12\) and \(S = \Var (y) = \theta ^2/12\), so the asymptotic variance of \(\sqrt n(\hat \theta - \theta )\) is \(G^{-2}S = 4\theta ^2/12 = \theta ^2/3\).
(b) \(\bar y = 10.5/5 = 2.1\), so \(\hat \theta = 4.2\). This exceeds the largest observation \(3.9\), as it must for the data to be possible, but a method of moments estimate can also fall below the maximum, giving an impossible value. The maximum likelihood estimator, the sample maximum, never does, and it converges at the faster rate \(1/n\): the method of moments is not always efficient.
Problem 15.7.2. Show that least squares is the method of moments estimator for \(g = x(y - x'\beta )\), and that Theorem 15.1.3 gives White’s heteroscedasticity-robust variance. What does the theorem give under homoscedasticity?
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Solution. \(\bar g_n(\beta ) = \frac 1nX'(Y - X\beta ) = 0\) are the normal equations, with solution \(b\). The derivative is \(\partial g/\partial \beta ' = -xx'\), so \(G = -E(xx') = -Q\), and \(S = E(u^2xx')\). The asymptotic variance of \(\sqrt n(b - \beta )\) is \(Q^{-1}E(u^2xx')Q^{-1}\), estimated by \(n(X'X)^{-1}\bigl (\sum e_i^2x_ix_i'\bigr )(X'X)^{-1}\), which is \(n\) times White’s estimator. Under homoscedasticity \(S = \sigma ^2Q\) and the variance becomes \(\sigma ^2Q^{-1}\), the classical result.
Problem 15.7.3. Two independent unbiased measurements \(y_1\) and \(y_2\) of the same quantity \(\mu \) have known variances \(\sigma _1^2\) and \(\sigma _2^2\), and \(n\) independent pairs are observed. Use the moment conditions \(E(y_1 - \mu ) = 0\) and \(E(y_2 - \mu ) = 0\).
- (a)
- Find the GMM estimator with weight \(W = I\), and the efficient GMM estimator.
- (b)
- Find the variance of each, and compare with \(\sigma _1^2 = 1\), \(\sigma _2^2 = 4\).
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Solution. (a) \(Q(\mu ) = (\bar y_1 - \mu )^2 + (\bar y_2 - \mu )^2\) for \(W = I\), minimised by \(\hat \mu = \frac 12(\bar y_1 + \bar y_2)\). Here \(S = \operatorname {diag}(\sigma _1^2, \sigma _2^2)\), and with \(W = S^{-1}\) the objective is \((\bar y_1 - \mu )^2/\sigma _1^2 + (\bar y_2 - \mu )^2/\sigma _2^2\), minimised by the inverse-variance weighted mean \(\hat \mu = (\bar y_1/\sigma _1^2 + \bar y_2/\sigma _2^2)/(1/\sigma _1^2 + 1/\sigma _2^2)\).
(b) The simple mean has variance \((\sigma _1^2 + \sigma _2^2)/(4n) = 5/(4n) = 1.25/n\). The efficient estimator has variance \(1/\bigl (n(1/\sigma _1^2 + 1/\sigma _2^2)\bigr ) = 1/(1.25n) = 0.8/n\), which is \((G'S^{-1}G)^{-1}/n\) with \(G = -(1, 1)'\). It is better even than using \(y_1\) alone (variance \(1/n\)): the noisier measurement still adds information, provided it is weighted correctly.
Problem 15.7.4. A consumption Euler equation is estimated by GMM from \(n = 160\) quarterly observations, with instruments a constant and two lags each of consumption growth and the asset return, and parameters \((\delta , \gamma )\). The estimates are \(\hat \delta = 0.993\) and \(\hat \gamma = 2.4\), and \(J = 13.8\).
- (a)
- How many moment conditions are there, and how many degrees of freedom does the \(J\) statistic have?
- (b)
- Test the overidentifying restrictions, and interpret the result.
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Solution. (a) There are \(\ell = 1 + 2 + 2 = 5\) instruments and one Euler equation, so five moment conditions; with \(k = 2\) parameters, \(J\) has \(\ell - k = 3\) degrees of freedom.
(b) The \(5\%\) and \(1\%\) points of \(\chi ^2_3\) are \(7.81\) and \(11.34\), so \(J = 13.8\) rejects at \(1\%\). The lagged variables help to predict the pricing error, which the theory says is impossible. Either the model of preferences is wrong (for instance, habits or non-separable utility), or the representative-agent assumption fails, or the consumption data, which are time-aggregated and measured with error, do not match the model’s timing. The test does not say which.
Problem 15.7.5. In the linear IV model with \(\ell = k\), show directly that the GMM estimator does not depend on the weighting matrix.
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Solution. With \(\ell = k\), \(Z'X\) is square and non-singular, so \[ b(W) = (X'ZWZ'X)^{-1}X'ZWZ'Y = (Z'X)^{-1}W^{-1}(X'Z)^{-1}X'ZWZ'Y = (Z'X)^{-1}Z'Y . \] Equivalently, the \(k\) equations \(Z'(Y - Xb) = 0\) can be solved exactly, so \(Q_n(b) = 0\) at their solution whatever the weight, and that solution is the minimiser.
Problem 15.7.6. For the gamma distribution with shape \(\kappa \) and rate \(\lambda \), show that \(E(y^2) = \kappa (\kappa + 1)/\lambda ^2\) and \(E(\log y) = \psi (\kappa ) - \log \lambda \), the two further moments used in Software 15.6.2. (Use \(E(y^r) = \Gamma (\kappa + r)/(\Gamma (\kappa )\lambda ^r)\), and differentiate with respect to \(r\) at \(r = 0\).)
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Solution. \(E(y^r) = \int _0^\infty y^r\frac {\lambda ^\kappa }{\Gamma (\kappa )}y^{\kappa - 1}e^{-\lambda y}\,dy = \frac {\lambda ^\kappa }{\Gamma (\kappa )}\cdot \frac {\Gamma (\kappa + r)}{\lambda ^{\kappa + r}} = \frac {\Gamma (\kappa + r)}{\Gamma (\kappa )\lambda ^r}\). With \(r = 2\), \(\Gamma (\kappa + 2) = (\kappa + 1)\kappa \Gamma (\kappa )\), giving \(\kappa (\kappa + 1)/\lambda ^2\). Since \(E(y^r) = E(e^{r\log y})\), its derivative at \(r = 0\) is \(E(\log y)\); differentiating \(\log E(y^r) = \log \Gamma (\kappa + r) - \log \Gamma (\kappa ) - r\log \lambda \) at \(r = 0\), where \(E(y^0) = 1\), gives \(E(\log y) = \psi (\kappa ) - \log \lambda \).
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