9.2 Maximum likelihood in the linear model
Let \(Y = X\beta + U\) with \(U \sim N(0, \sigma ^2I_n)\) and \(X\) non-stochastic of rank \(k\), and let \(\theta = (\beta ', \sigma ^2)'\).
- (i)
- The density of \(U\) is \(f(u) = (2\pi \sigma ^2)^{-n/2}\exp \bigl (-u'u/(2\sigma ^2)\bigr )\), and the density of \(Y\) is \[ f(y \mid X) = (2\pi \sigma ^2)^{-n/2}\exp \Bigl \{-\frac {1}{2\sigma ^2}(y - X\beta )'(y - X\beta )\Bigr \} . \]
- (ii)
- The log-likelihood is \[ \ell (\beta , \sigma ^2) = -\frac n2\log (2\pi ) - \frac n2\log \sigma ^2 - \frac {1}{2\sigma ^2}(y - X\beta )'(y - X\beta ) . \]
- (iii)
- The MLEs are \(\hat \beta = (X'X)^{-1}X'y = b\) and \(\hat \sigma ^2 = e'e/n\). The maximised log-likelihood is \[ \ell (\hat \theta ) = -\frac n2\bigl (1 + \log (2\pi )\bigr ) - \frac n2\log \frac {e'e}{n} . \]
- (iv)
- The information matrix is \[ I(\theta ) = \begin {pmatrix} \dfrac {X'X}{\sigma ^2} & 0 \\[8pt] 0 & \dfrac {n}{2\sigma ^4} \end {pmatrix}, \qquad I(\theta )^{-1} = \begin {pmatrix} \sigma ^2(X'X)^{-1} & 0 \\[2pt] 0 & \dfrac {2\sigma ^4}{n} \end {pmatrix} . \]
Proof. (i) \(U\) is \(N(0, \sigma ^2I)\); the multivariate normal density with \(|\sigma ^2I| = \sigma ^{2n}\) and \((\sigma ^2I)^{-1} = \sigma ^{-2}I\) gives \(f(u)\). The transformation \(u = y - X\beta \) has Jacobian matrix \(I\), with determinant \(1\), so \(f(y \mid X) = f(y - X\beta )\).
(ii) is the logarithm of (i).
(iii) For any fixed \(\sigma ^2\), \(\ell \) is maximised over \(\beta \) by minimising \((y - X\beta )'(y - X\beta )\), which is least squares. Then \(\partial \ell /\partial \sigma ^2 = -\frac {n}{2\sigma ^2} + \frac {e'e}{2\sigma ^4} = 0\) gives \(\hat \sigma ^2 = e'e/n\); this is a maximum since \(\ell \to -\infty \) as \(\sigma ^2 \to 0\) or \(\infty \). Substituting, the last term of \(\ell \) is \(-\frac {e'e}{2e'e/n} = -\frac n2\).
(iv) The first derivatives are \[ \frac {\partial \ell }{\partial \beta } = \frac {1}{\sigma ^2}X'(y - X\beta ), \qquad \frac {\partial \ell }{\partial \sigma ^2} = -\frac {n}{2\sigma ^2} + \frac {u'u}{2\sigma ^4}, \] and the second derivatives are \[ \frac {\partial ^2\ell }{\partial \beta \,\partial \beta '} = -\frac {X'X}{\sigma ^2}, \quad \frac {\partial ^2\ell }{\partial \beta \,\partial \sigma ^2} = -\frac {X'u}{\sigma ^4}, \quad \frac {\partial ^2\ell }{\partial (\sigma ^2)^2} = \frac {n}{2\sigma ^4} - \frac {u'u}{\sigma ^6} . \] Taking expectations with \(E(u) = 0\) and \(E(u'u) = n\sigma ^2\), minus the expected Hessian has blocks \(X'X/\sigma ^2\), \(0\) and \(-\frac {n}{2\sigma ^4} + \frac {n\sigma ^2}{\sigma ^6} = \frac {n}{2\sigma ^4}\). The inverse of a block-diagonal matrix is block-diagonal with the inverted blocks. □
Several conclusions follow. The MLE of \(\beta \) is least squares, and since \(\Var (b) = \sigma ^2(X'X)^{-1}\) equals the Cramér–Rao bound, least squares is efficient among all unbiased estimators, linear or not, once normality is assumed. That is a much stronger statement than Gauss–Markov. The MLE of \(\sigma ^2\) divides by \(n\) rather than \(n - k\), so it is biased downwards: \(E(\hat \sigma ^2) = \frac {n-k}{n}\sigma ^2\). The unbiased \(s^2\) has variance \(2\sigma ^4/(n - k)\), slightly above the bound \(2\sigma ^4/n\), which no unbiased estimator of \(\sigma ^2\) attains; the difference vanishes as \(n \to \infty \). The information matrix is block diagonal, so the estimates of \(\beta \) and of \(\sigma ^2\) are asymptotically uncorrelated: learning one tells nothing about the other.
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