7.2 The Gauss–Markov theorem
Theorem 7.2.1. Under (A1)–(A4), let \(c\) be any constant \(k\)-vector, and consider estimators of \(c'\beta \) of the form \(a'Y\) for a constant \(n\)-vector \(a\).
- (i)
- \(a'Y\) is unbiased for \(c'\beta \), whatever the value of \(\beta \), if and only if \(X'a = c\).
- (ii)
- \(\Var (a'Y) = \sigma ^2a'a\).
- (iii)
- The vector \(a\) that minimises \(a'a\) subject to \(X'a = c\) is \(a^* = X(X'X)^{-1}c\), and then \(a^{*\prime }Y = c'b\).
Hence \(c'b\) is the best linear unbiased estimator of \(c'\beta \) for every \(c\). Equivalently, for any linear unbiased estimator \(\tilde \beta \) of \(\beta \), \(\Var (\tilde \beta ) - \Var (b)\) is positive semi-definite.
Proof. (i) \(E(a'Y) = a'X\beta \). This equals \(c'\beta \) for every \(\beta \) if and only if \(a'X = c'\), that is \(X'a = c\).
(ii) \(\Var (a'Y) = a'\Var (Y)a = \sigma ^2a'a\).
(iii) Form the Lagrangian \(\mathcal L = a'a - 2\lambda '(X'a - c)\), with a \(k\)-vector of multipliers \(\lambda \) (the factor \(2\) is for convenience). By Lemma 5.1.8, \(\partial \mathcal L/\partial a = 2a - 2X\lambda = 0\), so \(a = X\lambda \). The constraint gives \(X'X\lambda = c\), so \(\lambda = (X'X)^{-1}c\) and \(a^* = X(X'X)^{-1}c\). It is a minimum, because for any feasible \(a\), writing \(a = a^* + d\) with \(X'd = 0\), \[ a'a = a^{*\prime }a^* + 2d'X(X'X)^{-1}c + d'd = a^{*\prime }a^* + d'd \geq a^{*\prime }a^* . \] Finally \(a^{*\prime }Y = c'(X'X)^{-1}X'Y = c'b\).
For the matrix statement, a linear unbiased \(\tilde \beta = AY\) has \(AX = I\). For any \(c\), \(c'\tilde \beta = (A'c)'Y\) is linear and unbiased for \(c'\beta \), so by (ii) and (iii) \(c'\Var (\tilde \beta )c = \Var (c'\tilde \beta ) \geq \Var (c'b) = c'\Var (b)c\). That is the definition of \(\Var (\tilde \beta ) - \Var (b)\) being psd. □
The proof by minimising \(a'a\) shows what the theorem is really saying. Every linear unbiased estimator of \(c'\beta \) uses weights \(a\) that satisfy the same \(k\) linear constraints, and the variance is proportional to the length of the weight vector. Least squares uses the shortest one, the one lying in the column space of \(X\).
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