10.2 Variance and confidence interval

The variance estimator in general use is due to Robins, Breslow and Greenland (1986). With \[ P_k = \frac {a_k + d_k}{n_k}, \quad Q_k = \frac {b_k + c_k}{n_k}, \quad R_k = \frac {a_k d_k}{n_k}, \quad S_k = \frac {b_k c_k}{n_k} , \] and \(R_+ = \sum _k R_k\), \(S_+ = \sum _k S_k\), \[ \widehat {\Var }(\log \widehat {\OR }_{\text {MH}}) = \frac {\sum _k P_k R_k}{2R_+^2} + \frac {\sum _k (P_k S_k + Q_k R_k)}{2R_+ S_+} + \frac {\sum _k Q_k S_k}{2S_+^2} . \] It is consistent under both kinds of asymptotics of Theorem 10.1.3, and the \(95\%\) interval is \[ \widehat {\OR }_{\text {MH}}\exp (\pm 1.96\,\text {SE}) . \]

Example 10.2.1. For the age-stratified data of Example 9.1.1:

Age \(n_k\) \(R_k\) \(S_k\) \(P_k\) \(Q_k\)
Under 45 410 7.024 4.000 0.802 0.198
45–59 315 17.143 8.571 0.667 0.333
60+ 190 16.842 6.842 0.600 0.400
Total 41.009 19.414

So \(\widehat {\OR }_{\text {MH}} = 41.009/19.414 = 2.11\), close to the Woolf estimate \(2.10\) and far from the crude \(3.37\). The weights of Proposition 10.1.2 are \(0.21\), \(0.44\) and \(0.35\). The Robins–Breslow–Greenland variance is \(0.0334\), so \(\text {SE} = 0.183\) and the interval is \(2.11\,e^{\pm 0.358} = (1.48,\ 3.02)\).

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