1.3 Sufficiency
A sufficient statistic for \(\theta \) captures all the information about \(\theta \) that the sample contains. Once its value is known, the remaining detail of the sample is pure noise as far as \(\theta \) is concerned.
Definition 1.3.1. A statistic \(T(X)\) is sufficient for the model \(\{f_\theta (x) : \theta \in \Omega \}\) if the conditional distribution of \(X = (X_1, \dots , X_n)\) given \(T(X) = t\) does not depend on \(\theta \), for every value \(t\).
The definition suggests the following principle, which is not a theorem but a statement of how inference ought to be done.
Remark (The sufficiency principle). If \(T(X)\) is sufficient for \(\theta \), then any inference about \(\theta \) should depend on the sample only through \(T(X)\): if \(x\) and \(y\) are sample points with \(T(x) = T(y)\), the inference should be the same whether \(x\) or \(y\) was observed.
The justification is that, given \(T = t\), the rest of the sample could be generated by a random mechanism that does not involve \(\theta \) at all. A second statistician who knew only \(t\) could simulate a sample with exactly the same distribution as the original.
Example 1.3.2. Let \(X_1, \dots , X_n\) be a random sample from \(\text {POI}(\theta )\). Show that \(T = \sum _{i=1}^n X_i\) is sufficient.
Solution. The joint probability function is \[f_\theta (x_1, \dots , x_n) = \prod ^n_{i = 1}\frac {e^{-\theta }\theta ^{x_i}}{x_i!} = \frac {e^{-n\theta }\theta ^{\sum x_i}}{\prod x_i!},\qquad x_i = 0, 1, 2, \dots ,\] and \(T\sim \text {POI}(n\theta )\). The event \(\{X = x\}\) is contained in \(\{T = t\}\) when \(\sum x_i = t\), and is disjoint from it otherwise. So for \(\sum x_i = t\), \[P(X = x\mid T = t) = \frac {P(X = x)}{P(T = t)} = \frac {e^{-n\theta }\theta ^{t}}{\prod x_i!}\cdot \frac {t!}{e^{-n\theta }(n\theta )^t} = \frac {t!}{x_1!\,x_2!\cdots x_n!}\left (\frac 1n\right )^t ,\] and the probability is \(0\) otherwise. This does not involve \(\theta \), so \(T\) is sufficient. In fact, given \(T = t\), the sample has the multinomial distribution \(\text {MULT}\left (t; \frac 1n, \dots , \frac 1n\right )\): the \(t\) events are spread over the \(n\) observations at random.
Example 1.3.3. Let \(X_1, \dots , X_n\) be a random sample from \(N(\theta , \sigma ^2)\) with \(\sigma ^2\) known. Show that \(T = \sum _{i=1}^n X_i\) is sufficient for \(\theta \).
Solution. Here \(T\sim N(n\theta , n\sigma ^2)\). Because \(X\) determines \(T\), the conditional density of \(X\) given \(T = t\) on the set \(\{\sum x_i = t\}\) is the ratio of the joint density of \(X\) to the density of \(T\): \[\frac {(2\pi \sigma ^2)^{-n/2}\exp \left (-\frac {1}{2\sigma ^2}\sum (x_i - \theta )^2\right )} {(2\pi n\sigma ^2)^{-1/2}\exp \left (-\frac {1}{2n\sigma ^2}(t - n\theta )^2\right )} .\] Expanding, \(\sum (x_i - \theta )^2 = \sum x_i^2 - 2\theta t + n\theta ^2\) and \(\frac 1n(t - n\theta )^2 = \frac {t^2}{n} - 2\theta t + n\theta ^2\). The terms in \(\theta \) cancel, leaving \[\frac {\sqrt n}{(2\pi \sigma ^2)^{(n-1)/2}}\exp \left (-\frac {1}{2\sigma ^2}\left [\sum x_i^2 - \frac {t^2}{n}\right ]\right ) = \frac {\sqrt n}{(2\pi \sigma ^2)^{(n-1)/2}}\exp \left (-\frac {1}{2\sigma ^2}\sum (x_i - \bar x)^2\right ),\] which does not depend on \(\theta \). So \(T\) is sufficient.
Problem 1.3.1. Let \(\, X_1\, , \, X_2\, , \, \cdots \, , \, X_n\,\) be a random sample from \(X\thicksim BIN(1,\theta )\,\) and let \(\, T = \sum ^n_{i = 1} X_i\)
- (a).
- Show that \(T\) is a sufficient statistic for this model.
- (b).
- Explain how you would generate data with the same distribution as the original data using only the value of the sufficient statistic.
- (c).
- Let \(\, U = \begin {cases} U\left (X_1\right ) = 1\, & \text {if}\ X_1 = 1\\ 0 & \text {otherwise} \end {cases} \)
Find \(\, E_{\theta }\left (U\right )\, \) and \(\, E\left (U \mid T = t\right )\)
Show solution
Solution.
(a)
The joint probability function is \[f_{\theta }(x_1,\dots ,x_n) = \prod _{i=1}^{n}\theta ^{x_i}(1-\theta )^{1-x_i} = \theta ^{t}(1-\theta )^{n-t},\qquad t=\sum _{i=1}^{n}x_i ,\] which depends on the data only through \(t\). Taking \(g(t,\theta )=\theta ^{t}(1-\theta )^{n-t}\) and \(h(x)=1\), the factorisation criterion gives sufficiency of \(T\).
(b)
Given \(T=t\), every arrangement of \(t\) ones among \(n\) positions has the same conditional probability, namely \(1/\binom {n}{t}\): the conditional probability of a particular \(x\) with \(\sum x_i=t\) is \[\frac {\theta ^{t}(1-\theta )^{n-t}}{\binom {n}{t}\theta ^{t}(1-\theta )^{n-t}} = \frac {1}{\binom {n}{t}},\] free of \(\theta \). So it is enough to choose a subset of \(\{1,\dots ,n\}\) of size \(t\) uniformly at random and put a one in those positions and a zero elsewhere. The result has exactly the distribution of the original sample, and \(\theta \) was never needed. That is what sufficiency means operationally: \(T\) carries all the information about \(\theta \), and the rest of the data can be regenerated by randomisation alone.
(c)
Here \(U=X_1\), so \[E_{\theta }(U) = P_{\theta }\left (X_1=1\right ) = \theta .\] For the conditional expectation, \(U\) is an indicator, so \begin {align*} E\left (U \mid T=t\right ) &= P\left (X_1=1 \mid T=t\right )\\ &= \frac {P\left (X_1=1,\ \sum _{i\geq 2}X_i = t-1\right )}{P(T=t)}\\ &= \frac {\theta \,\binom {n-1}{t-1}\theta ^{t-1}(1-\theta )^{n-t}} {\binom {n}{t}\theta ^{t}(1-\theta )^{n-t}}\\ &= \frac {\binom {n-1}{t-1}}{\binom {n}{t}} = \frac {t}{n}. \end {align*}
So \(E\left (U\mid T\right ) = T/n = \overline {X}\).
Note. This is the Rao–Blackwell theorem in miniature. \(U=X_1\) is unbiased for \(\theta \) but throws away \(n-1\) observations; conditioning it on the sufficient statistic returns \(\overline {X}\), which is unbiased, has variance \(\theta (1-\theta )/n\) instead of \(\theta (1-\theta )\), and is the UMVUE.
To use the definition we must first guess the sufficient statistic and then compute a conditional distribution. The next theorem lets us read a sufficient statistic straight off the joint density.
1.3.1 The Factorisation Criterion
Theorem 1.3.4 (Factorisation criterion). A statistic \(T(X)\) is sufficient for \(\{f_\theta (x) : \theta \in \Omega \}\) if and only if there are non-negative functions \(g\) and \(h\) such that \[f_\theta (x) = g\left (T(x); \theta \right ) h(x)\qquad \text {for all } x \text { and all } \theta \in \Omega .\]
Proof. We give the proof for discrete \(X\); the continuous case is the same in spirit but needs measure theory.
Only if
Suppose \(T\) is sufficient. For any \(x\), put \(t = T(x)\). The event \(\{X = x\}\) is contained in \(\{T = t\}\), so \[f_\theta (x) = P_\theta (X = x) = P_\theta (X = x,\ T = t) = \underbrace {P(X = x\mid T = t)}_{h(x)}\ \underbrace {P_\theta (T = t)}_{g(t;\theta )} .\] The first factor does not depend on \(\theta \) by sufficiency and is a function of \(x\); the second depends on \(x\) only through \(t = T(x)\).
If
Suppose \(f_\theta (x) = g(T(x);\theta )h(x)\). For a value \(t\) with \(P_\theta (T = t)>0\), \[P_\theta (T = t) = \sum _{y : T(y) = t} g(t;\theta )h(y) = g(t;\theta )\sum _{y : T(y) = t} h(y) .\] Hence for \(x\) with \(T(x) = t\), \[P_\theta (X = x\mid T = t) = \frac {g(t;\theta )h(x)}{g(t;\theta )\sum _{y : T(y) = t} h(y)} = \frac {h(x)}{\sum _{y : T(y) = t} h(y)},\] and for \(x\) with \(T(x)\ne t\) the conditional probability is \(0\). Neither depends on \(\theta \), so \(T\) is sufficient. □
Example 1.3.5. Let \(X_1, \dots , X_n\) be a random sample from \(N(\mu , \sigma ^2)\) with both parameters unknown. Show that \(\left (\sum X_i, \sum X_i^2\right )\) and \((\bar X, S^2)\) are both sufficient.
Solution. With \(\theta = (\mu , \sigma ^2)\), \begin {align*} f_\theta (x) &= (2\pi \sigma ^2)^{-n/2}\exp \left (-\frac {1}{2\sigma ^2}\sum (x_i - \mu )^2\right )\\ &= \underbrace {(\sigma ^2)^{-n/2}\exp \left (-\frac {\sum x_i^2 - 2\mu \sum x_i + n\mu ^2}{2\sigma ^2}\right )}_{g(T(x);\,\theta )}\ \underbrace {(2\pi )^{-n/2}}_{h(x)}, \end {align*}
so \(T = \left (\sum X_i, \sum X_i^2\right )\) is sufficient by theorem 1.3.4. Alternatively, writing \(x_i - \mu = (x_i - \bar x) + (\bar x - \mu )\) and using \(\sum (x_i - \bar x) = 0\), \[\sum (x_i - \mu )^2 = \sum (x_i - \bar x)^2 + n(\bar x - \mu )^2 = (n - 1)s^2 + n(\bar x - \mu )^2,\] so \[f_\theta (x) = (\sigma ^2)^{-n/2}\exp \left (-\frac {(n - 1)s^2 + n(\bar x - \mu )^2}{2\sigma ^2}\right )\cdot (2\pi )^{-n/2},\] and \((\bar X, S^2)\) is sufficient too. The two statistics are functions of each other, as corollary 1.3.8 below explains.
Sufficient statistics are not unique: the whole sample \(X\) is always sufficient (take \(T(x) = x\) and \(h = 1\)), and so is any one-to-one function of a sufficient statistic.
Example 1.3.6. Let \(X_1, \dots , X_n\) be a random sample from the Weibull distribution with p.d.f. \(f_\theta (x) = \theta x^{\theta - 1}e^{-x^\theta }\), \(x>0\), \(\theta >0\). Find a sufficient statistic.
Solution. \[f_\theta (x_1, \dots , x_n) = \theta ^n\left (\prod x_i\right )^{\theta - 1}\exp \left (-\sum x_i^\theta \right ).\] The term \(\sum x_i^\theta \) cannot be written in terms of a fixed finite set of summaries of the data for all \(\theta \): it changes with \(\theta \) in a way that depends on every observation. It is, however, symmetric in the \(x_i\), so it is a function of the order statistics. Taking \(h = 1\) and \(g\) the whole expression, \(T(X) = (X_{(1)}, \dots , X_{(n)})\) is sufficient. Apart from forgetting the order in which the observations arrived, no reduction of the data is possible here.
Example 1.3.7. Let \(X_1, \dots , X_n\) be a random sample from \(\text {UNIF}(0, \theta )\). Find a sufficient statistic for \(\theta \).
Solution. Write \(I(A)\) for the indicator of the event \(A\), equal to \(1\) if \(A\) holds and \(0\) otherwise. Each density is \(\frac 1\theta I(0<x_i<\theta )\), and all \(n\) observations lie in \((0, \theta )\) exactly when the smallest is positive and the largest is below \(\theta \). So \[f_\theta (x) = \frac {1}{\theta ^n}\prod _{i=1}^n I(0<x_i<\theta ) = \underbrace {\frac {1}{\theta ^n}I\left (x_{(n)}<\theta \right )}_{g(x_{(n)};\,\theta )}\ \underbrace {I\left (x_{(1)}>0\right )}_{h(x)},\] and \(T = X_{(n)}\) is sufficient. When the support depends on the parameter, the indicator functions must be kept in the factorisation; dropping them gives the wrong answer.
Problem 1.3.2. Let \(\, X_1\, , \, X_2\, , \, \cdots \, , \, X_n\,\) be a random sample from \(X\thicksim N(\mu , \sigma ^2)\,\) with \(\mu \) known. Find a sufficient statistic for \(\sigma ^2\).
Show solution
Solution. With \(\mu \) known the joint density is \[f_{\sigma ^{2}}(x) = \left (2\pi \sigma ^{2}\right )^{-n/2} \exp \left \{-\frac {1}{2\sigma ^{2}}\sum _{i=1}^{n}\left (x_i-\mu \right )^{2}\right \}.\] The data enter only through \(\sum _{i=1}^{n}(x_i-\mu )^{2}\), so with \[g(t,\sigma ^{2}) = \left (2\pi \sigma ^{2}\right )^{-n/2}e^{-t/2\sigma ^{2}}, \qquad h(x)=1,\] the factorisation criterion gives that \[T(X) = \sum _{i=1}^{n}\left (X_i-\mu \right )^{2}\] is sufficient for \(\sigma ^{2}\).
Note. Note that \(T\) is not \( (n-1)S^{2}\). Knowing \(\mu \) means the deviations are taken about the true mean rather than about \(\overline {X}\), and \(T/\sigma ^{2}\sim \chi ^{2}_{(n)}\) rather than \(\chi ^{2}_{(n-1)}\) — one degree of freedom is recovered, which is exactly the information that would otherwise have been spent estimating \(\mu \).
Problem 1.3.3. Let \(\, X_1\, , \, X_2\, , \, \cdots \, , \, X_n\,\) be a random sample from the \(EXP(1,\theta )\) distribution. Find a sufficient statistic for this model.
Show solution
Solution. The EXP\((1,\theta )\) density is \(f_{\theta }(x)=e^{-(x-\theta )}\) for \(x>\theta \) and zero otherwise, so the joint density is \[f_{\theta }(x) = \prod _{i=1}^{n} e^{-(x_i-\theta )}\,I\left (x_i>\theta \right ) = \underbrace {e^{n\theta }\,I\left (x_{(1)}>\theta \right )}_{g\left (x_{(1)},\,\theta \right )}\ \cdot \ \underbrace {e^{-\sum _{i=1}^{n}x_i}}_{h(x)} .\] Every \(x_i\) exceeds \(\theta \) exactly when the smallest of them does, which is what turns \(n\) indicator functions into one. By the factorisation criterion \(T(X)=X_{(1)}\) is sufficient.
Remark. The parameter here is a threshold rather than a location in the usual sense, and the sufficient statistic is an order statistic rather than a sum. Whenever the support depends on the parameter, the indicator function carries the information and an extreme order statistic is what the factorisation produces.
Corollary 1.3.8. If \(T(X)\) is sufficient for \(\{f_\theta (x) : \theta \in \Omega \}\), so is \(T^*(X) = r(T(X))\) for any one-to-one function \(r\).
Proof. By theorem 1.3.4, \(f_\theta (x) = g(T(x);\theta )h(x)\). Since \(r\) is one-to-one, \(T(x) = r^{-1}(T^*(x))\), so \[f_\theta (x) = g\left (r^{-1}(T^*(x));\theta \right )h(x) = g^*\left (T^*(x);\theta \right )h(x)\] with \(g^*(s;\theta ) = g(r^{-1}(s);\theta )\). By the theorem again, \(T^*\) is sufficient. □
Example 1.3.9. Let \(X_1, \dots , X_n\) be a random sample from \(\text {GAM}(\alpha , \beta )\) with both parameters unknown. Find a two-dimensional sufficient statistic.
Solution. \[f_\theta (x) = \prod _{i=1}^n\frac {x_i^{\alpha - 1}e^{-x_i/\beta }}{\beta ^\alpha \Gamma (\alpha )} = \left [\beta ^\alpha \Gamma (\alpha )\right ]^{-n}\left (\prod x_i\right )^{\alpha - 1}\exp \left (-\frac {1}{\beta }\sum x_i\right ),\qquad x_i>0 .\] With \(h = 1\) this is a function of \(\theta \) and of \(\left (\prod X_i, \sum X_i\right )\) only, so that pair is sufficient. By corollary 1.3.8 so are \(\left (\sum \ln X_i, \sum X_i\right )\) and the pair formed by the geometric and arithmetic means.
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