4.5 Score and Wald Tests
The likelihood ratio test needs the likelihood maximised twice. Two asymptotically equivalent tests need less: the score test uses only the null value, and the Wald test only the unrestricted estimate.
Theorem 4.5.1 (Score test). Under the usual regularity conditions, when \(H_0\colon \theta = \theta _0\) is true, \[S(\theta _0; X)\,J(\theta _0)^{-1/2}\underset {D}{\longrightarrow }N(0, 1),\qquad \text {so}\qquad R(\theta _0; X) = \frac {S(\theta _0; X)^2}{J(\theta _0)}\underset {D}{\longrightarrow }\chi ^2(1) .\] For a vector parameter \(\theta = (\theta _1, \dots , \theta _k)^{\mathsf T}\), \[R(\theta _0; X) = S(\theta _0; X)^{\mathsf T}J(\theta _0)^{-1}S(\theta _0; X)\underset {D}{\longrightarrow }\chi ^2(k) .\] The (Rao) score test rejects \(H_0\) when \(R(\theta _0; x)>c\), where \(P\left (\chi ^2(k)>c\right ) = \alpha \).
Proof. Take the scalar case. The score \(S(\theta _0; X) = \sum _{i=1}^nS_1(\theta _0; X_i)\) is a sum of independent, identically distributed terms which, under \(H_0\), have mean \(0\) and variance \(J_1(\theta _0)\) by theorem 2.2.1. So \(E(S) = 0\) and \(\var (S) = nJ_1(\theta _0) = J(\theta _0)\), and by the central limit theorem \(S(\theta _0; X)/\sqrt {J(\theta _0)}\underset {D}{\longrightarrow }Z\sim N(0, 1)\). The map \(z\mapsto z^2\) is continuous, so by part (2) of the limit theorems \(R(\theta _0; X)\underset {D}{\longrightarrow }Z^2\sim \chi ^2(1)\).
For \(\theta \in \mathbb {R}^k\) the multivariate central limit theorem gives \(J(\theta _0)^{-1/2}S(\theta _0; X)\underset {D}{\longrightarrow }Z\sim \text {MVN}(0, I_k)\), and \(Z^{\mathsf T}Z\sim \chi ^2(k)\). □
The score test is computed entirely at \(\theta _0\) and never needs the ML estimate. When the likelihood is awkward to maximise but easy to differentiate, it is the test to use.
Theorem 4.5.2 (Wald test). Let \(\hat \theta \) be the ML estimator over \(\Omega \). Under the usual regularity conditions, when \(H_0\colon \theta = \theta _0\) is true, \[w(\theta _0; X) = (\hat \theta - \theta _0)^{\mathsf T}J(\hat \theta )(\hat \theta - \theta _0)\underset {D}{\longrightarrow }\chi ^2(k) .\] The Wald test rejects \(H_0\) when \(w(\theta _0; x)>c\), where \(P\left (\chi ^2(k)>c\right ) = \alpha \). The information \(J(\hat \theta )\) may be replaced by \(J(\theta _0)\) or by the observed information \(I(\hat \theta )\) without changing the limit.
Proof. For \(k = 1\), theorem 2.5.3 gives \(\sqrt {J(\theta _0)}(\hat \theta - \theta _0)\underset {D}{\longrightarrow }N(0, 1)\), so its square tends to \(\chi ^2(1)\). Since \(\hat \theta \) is consistent and \(J_1\) is continuous, \(\frac {J(\hat \theta )}{J(\theta _0)} = \frac {J_1(\hat \theta )}{J_1(\theta _0)}\underset {P}{\longrightarrow }1\), and by Slutsky’s theorem \(w(\theta _0; X) = \frac {J(\hat \theta )}{J(\theta _0)}\cdot J(\theta _0)(\hat \theta - \theta _0)^2\) has the same limit. The vector case uses the multivariate normal limit of section 2.5 in the same way. □
Example 4.5.3. Let \(X\sim \text {BIN}(n, \theta )\). Find the score test and the Wald test of \(H_0\colon \theta = \theta _0\) against \(H_1\colon \theta \ne \theta _0\), and compare them with the likelihood ratio test when \(n = 100\), \(x = 60\) and \(\theta _0 = 0.5\).
Solution. \(\mathcal {L}(\theta ) = \ln \binom nx + x\ln \theta + (n - x)\ln (1 - \theta )\), so \[S(\theta ) = \frac x\theta - \frac {n - x}{1 - \theta } = \frac {x - n\theta }{\theta (1 - \theta )},\qquad I(\theta ) = \frac {x}{\theta ^2} + \frac {n - x}{(1 - \theta )^2} .\] The ML estimate is \(\hat \theta = \frac xn\), and since \(E(X) = n\theta \), \[J(\theta ) = \frac {n}{\theta } + \frac {n}{1 - \theta } = \frac {n}{\theta (1 - \theta )} .\]
Score test
\[R(\theta _0; x) = \frac {S(\theta _0)^2}{J(\theta _0)} = \frac {(x - n\theta _0)^2}{\theta _0^2(1 - \theta _0)^2}\cdot \frac {\theta _0(1 - \theta _0)}{n} = \frac {(x - n\theta _0)^2}{n\theta _0(1 - \theta _0)},\] the square of the familiar statistic \(\frac {\hat \theta - \theta _0}{\sqrt {\theta _0(1 - \theta _0)/n}}\).
Wald test
\[w(\theta _0; x) = (\hat \theta - \theta _0)^2J(\hat \theta ) = \frac {(x - n\theta _0)^2}{n\hat \theta (1 - \hat \theta )} .\] The two differ only in where the variance is evaluated: at \(\theta _0\) for the score test, at \(\hat \theta \) for the Wald test. If \(J(\theta _0)\) is used in the Wald statistic the two coincide.
Comparison
With \(n = 100\), \(x = 60\) and \(\theta _0 = 0.5\): \begin {gather*} R = \frac {100}{25} = 4.000,\qquad w = \frac {100}{100(0.6)(0.4)} = 4.167,\\ 2\ln \Lambda = 2\left [60\ln \frac {0.6}{0.5} + 40\ln \frac {0.4}{0.5}\right ] = 4.027 . \end {gather*} All three exceed \(\chi ^2_1(0.05) = 3.841\), so \(H_0\) is rejected at the \(5\%\) level by each. The three statistics are asymptotically equivalent under \(H_0\), and here they agree to within about \(4\%\); for small samples, or estimates near the boundary of \(\Omega \), they can disagree much more.
Problem 4.5.1. Suppose \((X_1, \, \cdots \, , X_n)\) is a random sample from the \(POI(\theta )\) distribution. Find the Score test and Wald test for testing \(H_0:\, \theta = \theta _0\) against \(H_1:\, \theta \neq \theta _0\).
Show solution
Solution. With \(T=\sum _{i=1}^{n}X_i\), \[\log L(\theta ) = -n\theta + T\log \theta + \text {const},\qquad S(\theta ,X) = \frac {T}{\theta } - n = \frac {T-n\theta }{\theta },\] and \(J(\theta ) = n/\theta \). The maximum likelihood estimator is \(\widehat {\theta }=\overline {X}\).
Score test
\[R(\theta _0,X) = \frac {\left [S(\theta _0,X)\right ]^{2}}{J(\theta _0)} = \frac {(T-n\theta _0)^{2}}{\theta _0^{2}}\cdot \frac {\theta _0}{n} = \frac {(T-n\theta _0)^{2}}{n\theta _0} = \frac {n\left (\overline {X}-\theta _0\right )^{2}}{\theta _0},\] and \(H_0\) is rejected when \(R>\chi ^{2}_{1,\,1-\alpha }\).
Wald test
\[w(\theta _0,X) = \left (\widehat {\theta }-\theta _0\right )^{2}J\left (\widehat {\theta }\right ) = \left (\overline {X}-\theta _0\right )^{2}\frac {n}{\overline {X}} = \frac {n\left (\overline {X}-\theta _0\right )^{2}}{\overline {X}},\] rejected on the same scale.
Note. The two differ only in where the information is evaluated — at \(\theta _0\) for the score test, at \(\widehat {\theta }\) for the Wald test — and they agree to first order, as the theory says they must. The score version needs no maximum likelihood estimate at all, and its null distribution uses only \(\theta _0\), which is why it is preferred when the null value is the natural reference point.
Problem 4.5.2. Let \(X_1, \, \cdots \, , X_n\) be a random sample from the distribution with pdf \[f_{\theta }(x) = \frac {\theta }{x^{1 + \theta }}\, , \ x\geq 1\] Find the Score test and the Wald test for testing \(H_0:\, \theta = \theta _0\) against \(H_1:\, \theta \neq \theta _0.\)
Show solution
Solution. For \(f_{\theta }(x)=\theta x^{-(1+\theta )}\) on \(x\geq 1\), write \(T=\sum _{i=1}^{n}\log X_i\). Then \[\log L(\theta ) = n\log \theta - (1+\theta )T,\qquad S(\theta ,X) = \frac {n}{\theta } - T,\] \[-\frac {\partial ^{2}\log L}{\partial \theta ^{2}} = \frac {n}{\theta ^{2}} \quad \Longrightarrow \quad J(\theta ) = \frac {n}{\theta ^{2}},\] the information being free of the data here. Setting the score to zero gives \(\widehat {\theta } = n/T\).
Score test
\[R(\theta _0,X) = \frac {\left [S(\theta _0,X)\right ]^{2}}{J(\theta _0)} = \left (\frac {n}{\theta _0}-T\right )^{2}\frac {\theta _0^{2}}{n} = \frac {\left (n-\theta _0 T\right )^{2}}{n} .\]
Wald test
\[w(\theta _0,X) = \left (\widehat {\theta }-\theta _0\right )^{2}J\left (\widehat {\theta }\right ) = \left (\frac {n}{T}-\theta _0\right )^{2}\frac {n}{\left (n/T\right )^{2}} = \frac {\left (n-\theta _0T\right )^{2}}{n} .\]
Both are referred to \(\chi ^{2}_{(1)}\) and \(H_0\) is rejected for large values.
Remark. The two statistics are identical here, which does not happen in general. It occurs because the information \(n/\theta ^{2}\) and the score \(n/\theta - T\) combine so that the \(\theta \) at which the information is evaluated cancels exactly. Recalling that \(T\sim \) GAM\((n,1/\theta )\), the common statistic is \(n\left (1-\theta _0T/n\right )^{2}\), a squared standardised deviation of \(T\) from its null mean \(n/\theta _0\).
Further reading
- 1.
- Neyman, J., and Pearson, E. S. (1933), On the problem of the most efficient tests of statistical hypotheses, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 231, 289–337.
- 2.
- Wilks, S. S. (1938), The large-sample distribution of the likelihood ratio for testing composite hypotheses, Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 9, 60–62.
- 3.
- Wald, A. (1943), Tests of statistical hypotheses concerning several parameters when the number of observations is large, Transactions of the American Mathematical Society, 54, 426–482.
- 4.
- Rao, C. R. (1948), Large sample tests of statistical hypotheses concerning several parameters with applications to problems of estimation, Proceedings of the Cambridge Philosophical Society, 44, 50–57.
- 5.
- Karlin, S., and Rubin, H. (1956), The theory of decision procedures for distributions with monotone likelihood ratio, Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 27, 272–299.
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