10 Accelerated Failure Time Models

The Cox model describes how covariates multiply the hazard. An accelerated failure time (AFT) model describes instead how they stretch or shrink time itself: a covariate that doubles the time scale makes every stage of the process, the median, the upper quartile, the time by which \(90\%\) have failed, twice as long. The model is fully parametric, so it gives survival curves, medians and predictions beyond the data directly, and its coefficients have a reading, “this treatment extends survival by \(40\%\)”, that many find more natural than a ratio of hazards. It is also one of the remedies, noted in the previous section, when hazards are not proportional.

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