12.3 Split plots with random factors

When some factors are random, the expected mean squares come from the rule of Result 11.5.1. The block becomes an ordinary random factor, and the whole-plot error is its interaction with the whole-plot factor. If there is one observation per cell, the highest-order interaction is the residual, and it is assumed negligible in what follows.

Example 12.3.1. A study was made of the effect of inoculation on the root yield of sugar beet planted at different in-row spacings. At each of three locations, one of two equal plots was chosen at random to be inoculated. Each plot was divided into four subplots, and the spacings \(4\), \(6\), \(12\) and \(18\) cm were randomised to them. Inoculation is a fixed factor, and location and spacing are to be treated as random. The yields were

location inoculated \(4\) \(6\) \(12\) \(18\) total
\(1\) yes \(17\) \(17\) \(16\) \(13\) \(63\)
no \(20\) \(20\) \(22\) \(20\) \(82\)
\(2\) yes \(16\) \(17\) \(15\) \(12\) \(60\)
no \(18\) \(20\) \(21\) \(19\) \(78\)
\(3\) yes \(17\) \(19\) \(17\) \(13\) \(66\)
no \(18\) \(21\) \(19\) \(19\) \(77\)
total \(106\) \(114\) \(110\) \(96\) \(426\)

Design. This is a split-plot design with locations as blocks: inoculation is the whole-plot factor, randomised to the two plots at each location, and spacing the subplot factor, randomised to the four subplots of each plot.

Model. With \(i\) for location (\(3\) levels, random), \(j\) for inoculation (\(2\), fixed) and \(k\) for spacing (\(4\), random), \[ y_{ijk} = \mu + L_i + \tau _j + (L\tau )_{ij} + S_k + (LS)_{ik} + (\tau S)_{jk} + \varepsilon _{ijk} , \] where \(L_i \sim N(0, \sigma ^2_L)\), \(S_k \sim N(0, \sigma ^2_S)\), the interactions are normal with variances \(\sigma ^2_{L\tau }\), \(\sigma ^2_{LS}\), \(\sigma ^2_{\tau S}\) (those with \(\tau \) restricted to sum to zero over \(j\)), \(\sum _j\tau _j = 0\), and \(\varepsilon _{ijk} \sim N(0, \sigma ^2)\) is the residual, which also contains the negligible three-factor interaction. \((L\tau )_{ij}\) is the whole-plot error.

Expected mean squares. By the restricted rule, with \(Q_\tau = \sum _j\tau _j^2\), \begin {align*} E(MS_L) &= \sigma ^2 + 2\sigma ^2_{LS} + 8\sigma ^2_L , \\ E(MS_\tau ) &= \sigma ^2 + 4\sigma ^2_{L\tau } + 3\sigma ^2_{\tau S} + 12Q_\tau , \\ E(MS_{L\tau }) &= \sigma ^2 + 4\sigma ^2_{L\tau } , \\ E(MS_S) &= \sigma ^2 + 2\sigma ^2_{LS} + 6\sigma ^2_S , \\ E(MS_{LS}) &= \sigma ^2 + 2\sigma ^2_{LS} , \\ E(MS_{\tau S}) &= \sigma ^2 + 3\sigma ^2_{\tau S} . \end {align*}

For instance \((L\tau )\) does not enter \(E(MS_L)\), because its extra subscript \(j\) belongs to a fixed factor, but \((LS)\) does, with coefficient \(2\), the number of levels of \(j\).

Analysis. With \(C = 426^2/24 = 7561.5\) and \(\sum y^2 = 7722\), \begin {align*} SS_L &= \frac {145^2 + 138^2 + 143^2}8 - C = 3.25 , \\ SS_\tau &= \frac {189^2 + 237^2}{12} - C = 96.0 , \\ SS_S &= \frac {106^2 + 114^2 + 110^2 + 96^2}6 - C = 29.83 , \end {align*}

and with the given \(SS_{L\tau } = 4.75\), \(SS_{LS} = 4.417\), \(SS_{\tau S} = 20\), \(SS_E = 2.25\) and \(SST = 160.5\):

source SS df MS \(F_0\)
location \(3.25\) \(2\) \(1.625\) \(1.625/0.736 = 2.21\)
inoculation \(96.00\) \(1\) \(96.000\) see below
location \(\times \) inoculation \(4.75\) \(2\) \(2.375\) \(2.375/0.375 = 6.33\)
spacing \(29.83\) \(3\) \(9.944\) \(9.944/0.736 = 13.51\)
location \(\times \) spacing \(4.42\) \(6\) \(0.736\) \(0.736/0.375 = 1.96\)
inoculation \(\times \) spacing \(20.00\) \(3\) \(6.667\) \(6.667/0.375 = 17.78\)
residual \(2.25\) \(6\) \(0.375\)
total \(160.50\) \(23\)

Locations and spacings are tested against location \(\times \) spacing. For locations, \(F_0 = 2.21 < F_{0.05, 2, 6} = 5.14\): no significant variation between locations. For spacings, \(F_0 = 13.51 > F_{0.05, 3, 6} = 4.76\) (\(P = 0.004\)): spacing matters. The inoculation \(\times \) spacing interaction is also large (\(P = 0.002\)): the totals for inoculated plots are \(50\), \(53\), \(48\), \(38\) across the spacings, and for uninoculated plots \(56\), \(61\), \(62\), \(58\), so the loss of yield from inoculation grows with the spacing, from \(6\) at \(4\) cm to \(20\) at \(18\) cm (totals over the three locations).

No mean square has the expectation \(\sigma ^2 + 4\sigma ^2_{L\tau } + 3\sigma ^2_{\tau S}\) needed to test inoculation, so a quasi-\(F\) test is required: \begin {align*} F_0 &= \frac {MS_\tau }{MS_{L\tau } + MS_{\tau S} - MS_E} \\ &= \frac {96.0}{2.375 + 6.667 - 0.375} = \frac {96.0}{8.667} = 11.08 , \end {align*}

with \(\hat \nu = 8.667^2/(2.375^2/2 + 6.667^2/3 + 0.375^2/6) = 4.25\) denominator degrees of freedom. Since \(F_{0.05, 1, 4.25} = 7.36\) (\(P = 0.027\)), inoculation has a significant effect: on average it lowered yield from \(19.75\) to \(15.75\).

Remark. The spacings \(4\), \(6\), \(12\) and \(18\) cm look chosen rather than sampled, and treating spacing as fixed would be more natural. The rule then drops \(3\sigma ^2_{\tau S}\) from \(E(MS_\tau )\) and \(2\sigma ^2_{LS}\) from \(E(MS_L)\), and inoculation has the exact test \(MS_\tau /MS_{L\tau }\) against its whole-plot error, the standard split-plot analysis (Problem 12.4.4). The choice between fixed and random is part of the model, and it changes the tests.

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