8.3 The general \(2^k\) design

With \(k\) factors the table of signs has \(2^k\) rows and \(2^k\) columns: \(I\), the \(k\) main effects, \(\binom k2\) two-factor interactions, and so on up to the single \(k\)-factor interaction. Each effect column is the product of the columns of its factors.

Theorem 8.3.1. In a \(2^k\) design with \(n\) replicates, let \(\mathbf c_E\) be the column of signs for an effect \(E\) and \(\text {Contrast}_E = \sum \pm (\text {totals})\) the corresponding contrast in the treatment totals. Then

(i)
the estimate \(\hat E = \text {Contrast}_E/(n2^{k-1})\) is the difference between the mean response at the \(+\) and the \(-\) runs of the column, and is unbiased for the corresponding difference of true means;
(ii)
\(\Var (\hat E) = \sigma ^2/(n2^{k-2})\);
(iii)
the sum of squares \(SS_E = \text {Contrast}_E^2/(n2^k)\) has one degree of freedom, and the \(2^k - 1\) effect sums of squares are independent and add up to the treatment sum of squares.

Proof. (i) Each column has \(2^{k-1}\) plus signs and \(2^{k-1}\) minus signs, each covering \(n\) observations, so \(\text {Contrast}_E/(n2^{k-1}) = \bar y_+ - \bar y_-\), a difference of two means of \(n2^{k-1}\) observations each. (ii) These two means are independent, each with variance \(\sigma ^2/(n2^{k-1})\), so the variance of the difference is \(2\sigma ^2/(n2^{k-1}) = \sigma ^2/(n2^{k-2})\). (iii) The contrast has coefficient vector \(\mathbf c_E\) with \(\sum c_i^2 = 2^k\), so by Section 4 its sum of squares is \(\text {Contrast}_E^2/(n2^k)\). The \(2^k - 1\) columns other than \(I\) are mutually orthogonal by property (iii) of the table, so by Theorem 4.2.2 their sums of squares are independent and partition \(SS_{\mathrm {Treatments}}\), which has \(2^k - 1\) degrees of freedom. □

The whole analysis of a \(2^k\) design therefore needs only the \(2^k - 1\) contrasts. (Yates’s algorithm computes them all by \(k\) passes of sums and differences down the column of totals in standard order; with a computer the table of signs is just as quick.)

The regression model

With the coded variables \(x_1, \dots , x_k\) taking the values \(\pm 1\), the \(2^k\) design can be fitted by the regression model \[ y = \beta _0 + \sum _i\beta _ix_i + \sum _{i<j}\beta _{ij}x_ix_j + \dots + \varepsilon . \]

Proposition 8.3.2. For a \(2^k\) design with \(n\) replicates, the least squares estimate of each regression coefficient is half the corresponding effect estimate, for example \(\hat \beta _1 = \hat A/2\) and \(\hat \beta _{12} = \widehat {AB}/2\), and \(\hat \beta _0 = \bar y\).

Proof. The columns of the regression design matrix are the columns of the table of signs, each repeated \(n\) times. They are orthogonal, each of squared length \(N = n2^k\), so \(X^\top X = NI\) and \(\hat {\boldsymbol \beta } = X^\top \mathbf y/N\). For the column of an effect \(E\), \(X^\top \mathbf y\) is \(\text {Contrast}_E\), so \(\hat \beta _E = \text {Contrast}_E/(n2^k) = \hat E/2\). The factor \(\frac 12\) appears because the effect is the change in response as \(x\) moves from \(-1\) to \(+1\), a distance of \(2\), while the coefficient is the change per unit of \(x\). □

For the yield data of Example 8.1.1, the fitted model is \[ \hat y = 17.617 + 2.583x_1 + 1.283x_2 + 0.617x_1x_2 , \] which reproduces the four cell means, and can be used to predict the yield at intermediate settings, within the region studied.

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