2.4 Checking the assumptions
The \(t\) test assumes independent errors, normality and, for the pooled form, equal variances. Independence is secured by randomisation, not checked after the fact. Normality is checked with a normal probability plot: the ordered residuals \(y_{ij} - \bar y_i\) are plotted against the expected normal order statistics, approximately \(\Phi ^{-1}\bigl ((k - 0.5)/N\bigr )\) for the \(k\)th smallest of \(N\), and should lie close to a straight line. Moderate departures from normality matter little, because the \(t\) test is robust to them, as the randomisation argument shows.
Equality of variances can be tested formally.
Theorem 2.4.1. Under the model with variances \(\sigma _1^2\) and \(\sigma _2^2\), \[ \frac {S_1^2/\sigma _1^2}{S_2^2/\sigma _2^2} \sim F_{n_1-1,\,n_2-1} . \]
Proof. \((n_i - 1)S_i^2/\sigma _i^2 \sim \chi ^2_{n_i-1}\) independently by Theorem 2.1.2; divide each by its degrees of freedom and take the ratio. □
To test \(H_0 : \sigma _1^2 = \sigma _2^2\), compute \(F_0 = s_1^2/s_2^2\) and reject if \(F_0 > F_{\alpha /2,\,n_1-1,\,n_2-1}\) or \(F_0 < F_{1-\alpha /2,\,n_1-1,\,n_2-1}\). A \(100(1 - \alpha )\%\) confidence interval for \(\sigma _1^2/\sigma _2^2\) is \[ \frac {s_1^2/s_2^2}{F_{\alpha /2,\,n_1-1,\,n_2-1}} \le \frac {\sigma _1^2}{\sigma _2^2} \le \frac {s_1^2/s_2^2}{F_{1-\alpha /2,\,n_1-1,\,n_2-1}} , \] and for a single variance, since \((n - 1)S^2/\sigma ^2 \sim \chi ^2_{n-1}\), \[ \frac {(n - 1)s^2}{\chi ^2_{\alpha /2,\,n-1}} \le \sigma ^2 \le \frac {(n - 1)s^2}{\chi ^2_{1-\alpha /2,\,n-1}} . \]
Example 2.4.2. For the catalyst data, \(F_0 = 5.6741/2.7286 = 2.080\). With \(F_{0.025,7,7} = 4.995\) and \(F_{0.975,7,7} = 1/4.995 = 0.200\), \(F_0\) lies between the critical values, and \(H_0\) is not rejected (\(p = 0.355\)). The \(95\%\) interval for \(\sigma _1^2/\sigma _2^2\) is \((2.080/4.995,\ 2.080/0.200) = (0.416,\ 10.39)\). The interval for \(\sigma _1^2\) alone uses \(\chi ^2_{0.025,7} = 16.013\) and \(\chi ^2_{0.975,7} = 1.690\): \[ \frac {7(5.6741)}{16.013} \le \sigma _1^2 \le \frac {7(5.6741)}{1.690} , \qquad \text {that is,}\qquad 2.48 \le \sigma _1^2 \le 23.50 . \] Both intervals are very wide. Eight observations say little about a variance: the data are consistent with equal variances and also with one variance ten times the other.
Remark. Unlike the \(t\) test, the \(F\) test for variances is not robust to non-normality. Its level can be far from nominal for heavy-tailed data, so a significant result may reflect the shape of the distribution rather than a difference in spread. Levene’s test, which applies a \(t\) test or analysis of variance to the absolute deviations \(|y_{ij} - \tilde y_i|\) from the group medians, is the robust alternative and is discussed with the analysis of variance.
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