14.3 Practice problems

Problem 14.3.1. A regressor is measured with reliability \(\lambda = 0.6\), and the least-squares slope of \(y\) on the measured regressor is \(1.5\). Estimate the slope on the true regressor. What sample size would be needed to remove the bias?

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Solution. Dividing by the reliability, the corrected slope is \(1.5/0.6 = 2.5\).

No sample size removes the bias. By Theorem 14.1.1, the naive slope converges to \(0.6\beta _1\), not to \(\beta _1\), so larger samples only make the wrong answer more precise. The remedy is a better measurement or a correction based on an estimate of \(\sigma _\delta ^2\).

Problem 14.3.2. In each case, say whether the error is classical or Berkson, and whether the least-squares slope is biased.

(a)
An oven is set to \(150\), \(175\) and \(200\,^\circ \)C, and the actual temperature fluctuates around each setting.
(b)
Household income is recorded from a questionnaire, and respondents misremember their income.
(c)
All workers in a room are assigned the exposure measured by a single monitor in the room’s centre.

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Solution. (a) Berkson: the recorded setting is fixed, and the truth varies around it. Unbiased. (b) Classical: the recorded value is the truth plus error. The slope is attenuated. (c) Berkson: everyone in the room receives the same recorded value, and each worker’s true exposure varies around it. Unbiased, though less precise.

Problem 14.3.3. Show that the Deming slope of Theorem 14.1.4 tends to \(S_{xy}/S_{xx}\) as \(\kappa \to \infty \), and to \(S_{yy}/S_{xy}\) as \(\kappa \to 0\), for \(S_{xy} > 0\).

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Solution. The slope is the positive root of \(S_{xy}\beta ^2 + (\kappa S_{xx} - S_{yy})\beta - \kappa S_{xy} = 0\). Dividing by \(\kappa \) and letting \(\kappa \to \infty \) leaves \(S_{xx}\beta - S_{xy} = 0\), so \(\beta \to S_{xy}/S_{xx}\). Setting \(\kappa = 0\) leaves \(S_{xy}\beta ^2 - S_{yy}\beta = 0\), whose positive root is \(S_{yy}/S_{xy}\); by continuity of the roots in \(\kappa \), the positive root tends to it.

Problem 14.3.4. A calibration with \(n = 8\) standards gave \(\hat y = 1 + 0.8x\), with \(\bar x = 5\), \(S_{xx} = 42\) and \(s = 0.6\). A new sample reads \(y_0 = 9\). Find \(\hat x_0\), the approximate interval, and the exact \(95\%\) interval of Theorem 14.2.1 (\(t_{0.025,6} = 2.447\)). Comment.

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Solution. \(\hat x_0 = (9 - 1)/0.8 = 10\). Then \(g = 2.447^2(0.36)/(0.64 \times 42) = 0.080\), not negligible. The approximate standard error is \[ \frac {0.6}{0.8}\sqrt {1 + \frac 18 + \frac {25}{42}} = 0.75(1.312) = 0.984 , \] giving \(10 \pm 2.447(0.984)\), from \(7.59\) to \(12.41\). The exact interval has centre \(5 + 5/0.920 = 10.436\) and half-width \[ \frac {2.447(0.6)}{0.8(0.920)}\sqrt {0.920(1.125) + \frac {25}{42}} = 1.996(1.276) = 2.547 , \] so it runs from \(7.89\) to \(12.98\). It is shifted away from \(\bar x\) and is not symmetric about \(\hat x_0\), because the band widens as \(x\) moves away from \(\bar x\) (Figure 31). The symmetric approximation is poor here because \(\hat x_0\) is far from the centre of the standards and the line is not very precise.

Problem 14.3.5. Two measurements of a regressor were taken on each of five units: \((10, 12)\), \((15, 14)\), \((8, 9)\), \((20, 17)\), \((12, 12)\). Estimate the measurement error variance \(\sigma _\delta ^2\).

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Solution. The differences are \(-2\), \(1\), \(-1\), \(3\), \(0\), with mean \(0.2\) and sample variance \([(-2.2)^2 + 0.8^2 + (-1.2)^2 + 2.8^2 + (-0.2)^2]/4 = 14.8/4 = 3.7\). Since a difference has variance \(2\sigma _\delta ^2\), \(\hat \sigma _\delta ^2 = 3.7/2 = 1.85\).

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