16.1 The spectral density
Definition 16.1.1. For a stationary process with autocovariance \(\gamma (\tau )\) satisfying \(\sum _\tau |\gamma (\tau )| < \infty \), the spectral density is \[ f(\omega ) = \frac {1}{2\pi }\sum _{\tau =-\infty }^{\infty }\gamma (\tau )\,e^{-i\omega \tau } , \qquad -\pi \le \omega \le \pi . \]
- (i)
- \(f(\omega )\) is real and even, and \[ f(\omega ) = \frac {1}{2\pi }\Bigl [\gamma (0) + 2\sum _{\tau =1}^\infty \gamma (\tau )\cos (\omega \tau )\Bigr ] . \]
- (ii)
- The autocovariance is recovered by inversion, \[ \gamma (\tau ) = \int _{-\pi }^{\pi }f(\omega )\,e^{i\omega \tau }\,d\omega , \] and in particular \[ \gamma (0) = \Var (X_t) = \int _{-\pi }^{\pi }f(\omega )\,d\omega . \]
Proof. (i) Since \(\gamma (-\tau ) = \gamma (\tau )\), the terms for \(\tau \) and \(-\tau \) pair up as \(\gamma (\tau )(e^{-i\omega \tau } + e^{i\omega \tau }) = 2\gamma (\tau )\cos (\omega \tau )\), which is real and even in \(\omega \).
(ii) For integers \(m\), \(\int _{-\pi }^{\pi }e^{i\omega m}\,d\omega \) is \(2\pi \) if \(m = 0\) and \(0\) otherwise, since \(e^{i\omega m}\) then completes \(|m|\) whole turns. So \begin {align*} \int _{-\pi }^{\pi }f(\omega )e^{i\omega \tau }\,d\omega &= \frac {1}{2\pi }\sum _k\gamma (k)\int _{-\pi }^{\pi }e^{i\omega (\tau -k)}\,d\omega \\ &= \frac {1}{2\pi }\gamma (\tau )\cdot 2\pi = \gamma (\tau ) , \end {align*}
where exchanging sum and integral is justified by the absolute convergence of \(\sum |\gamma (k)|\). Put \(\tau = 0\) for the variance. □
The last line is the interpretation: the total variance of the series is spread across the frequencies, and \(f(\omega )\,d\omega \) is the share contributed by cycles near frequency \(\omega \). A peak in the spectrum is a frequency band doing a disproportionate amount of the work, which is exactly what a seasonal effect looks like, and it is visible at a glance where the autocorrelation function would show only a slow ripple. Since \(f\) is even, it is usually plotted for \(0 \le \omega \le \pi \) only.
Theorem 16.1.3 (Spectrum of a linear process). If \(X_t = \sum _{j\ge 0}\psi _jZ_{t-j}\) with \(\sum |\psi _j| < \infty \) and \(\{Z_t\}\) white noise with variance \(\sigma _Z^2\), then \[ f_X(\omega ) = \frac {\sigma _Z^2}{2\pi }\bigl |\psi (e^{-i\omega })\bigr |^2 , \qquad \psi (z) = \sum _{j\ge 0}\psi _jz^j . \] In particular, for the ARMA process \(\phi (B)X_t = \theta (B)Z_t\), \[ f_X(\omega ) = \frac {\sigma _Z^2}{2\pi }\,\frac {|\theta (e^{-i\omega })|^2}{|\phi (e^{-i\omega })|^2} . \]
Proof. As for an MA process, \(\gamma (\tau ) = \sigma _Z^2\sum _j\psi _j\psi _{j+\tau }\) (with \(\psi _j = 0\) for \(j < 0\), this holds for all \(\tau \)). Then \begin {align*} \sum _\tau \gamma (\tau )e^{-i\omega \tau } &= \sigma _Z^2\sum _j\sum _\tau \psi _j\psi _{j+\tau }e^{-i\omega (j+\tau )}e^{i\omega j} \\ &= \sigma _Z^2\Bigl (\sum _k\psi _ke^{-i\omega k}\Bigr )\Bigl (\sum _j\psi _je^{i\omega j}\Bigr ) , \end {align*}
with \(k = j + \tau \). The second factor is the complex conjugate of the first, so the product is \(|\psi (e^{-i\omega })|^2\). For an ARMA process \(\psi (B) = \theta (B)/\phi (B)\). □
Example 16.1.4. Find the spectral densities of white noise, the AR(1) process \(X_t = \alpha X_{t-1} + Z_t\), and the MA(1) process \(X_t = Z_t + \beta Z_{t-1}\).
Solution.
White noise
Here \(\gamma (0) = \sigma ^2\) and \(\gamma (\tau ) = 0\) otherwise, so only one term survives: \[ f(\omega ) = \frac {\sigma ^2}{2\pi } , \] constant in \(\omega \). Every frequency contributes equally, which is what the name means, by analogy with white light.
AR(1)
By Theorem 16.1.3 with \(\phi (z) = 1 - \alpha z\), and \(|1 - \alpha e^{-i\omega }|^2 = (1 - \alpha e^{-i\omega })(1 - \alpha e^{i\omega }) = 1 - 2\alpha \cos \omega + \alpha ^2\), \[ f(\omega ) = \frac {\sigma ^2}{2\pi }\cdot \frac {1}{|1 - \alpha e^{-i\omega }|^2} = \frac {\sigma ^2}{2\pi (1 - 2\alpha \cos \omega + \alpha ^2)} . \] (Summing the two geometric series in the definition, with \(\gamma (\tau ) = \sigma ^2\alpha ^{|\tau |}/(1 - \alpha ^2)\), gives the same.) For \(\alpha > 0\) this is largest at \(\omega = 0\): the series is dominated by slow movement, which is what positive autocorrelation means. For \(\alpha < 0\) the peak moves to \(\omega = \pi \), the fastest representable oscillation, alternation from one observation to the next.
MA(1)
With \(\theta (z) = 1 + \beta z\), \(|1 + \beta e^{-i\omega }|^2 = 1 + 2\beta \cos \omega + \beta ^2\), so \[ f(\omega ) = \frac {\sigma ^2}{2\pi }(1 + 2\beta \cos \omega + \beta ^2) , \] a single smooth hump, at \(\omega = 0\) if \(\beta > 0\) and at \(\omega = \pi \) if \(\beta < 0\). Note that \(\beta \) and \(1/\beta \) give spectra of the same shape, as they give the same ac.f. (Section 7).
Example 16.1.5. Find the frequency at which the spectrum of the AR(2) process \(X_t = X_{t-1} - \frac 12X_{t-2} + Z_t\) of Example 8.3.2 is largest, and compare its period with that of the ac.f.
Solution. Here \(\phi (z) = 1 - z + \frac 12z^2\), and \begin {align*} |\phi (e^{-i\omega })|^2 &= \bigl (1 - e^{-i\omega } + \tfrac 12e^{-2i\omega }\bigr )\bigl (1 - e^{i\omega } + \tfrac 12e^{2i\omega }\bigr ) \\ &= 1 + 1 + \tfrac 14 - 2\cos \omega + \cos 2\omega - \cos \omega \\ &= \tfrac 94 - 3\cos \omega + \cos 2\omega . \end {align*}
The spectrum is largest where this is smallest. With \(c = \cos \omega \) and \(\cos 2\omega = 2c^2 - 1\), it is \(2c^2 - 3c + \frac 54\), minimised at \(c = \frac 34\). So the peak is at \(\omega = \arccos 0.75 = 0.723\) radians, a period of \(2\pi /0.723 = 8.7\) observations, where \(|\phi |^2 = 0.125\) and \(f = 8\sigma ^2/(2\pi )\), against \(4\sigma ^2/(2\pi )\) at \(\omega = 0\) and \(0.16\sigma ^2/(2\pi )\) at \(\omega = \pi \). The ac.f. oscillates with period exactly \(8\); the two periods are close but not equal, because the damping of the ac.f. shifts the peak of the spectrum (Figure 14, panel 4).
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