11.4 Forecasting: (Box-Jenkins Procedure)

The main stages of the the Box-Jenkins procedure,

1.

Identification: examining the data to identify a model

2.

Estimation: Estimating parameters of the model

3.

Diagnostic checking: examining residuals from the the fitted model to see if the model is adequate

4.

Consideration of an alternative model. This is done when the first model appears to be inadequate.

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