9.3 The autocorrelation function
Theorem 9.3.1. For the stationary ARMA(1,1) process \(X_t = \alpha X_{t-1} + Z_t + \beta Z_{t-1}\), \begin {gather*} \gamma (0) = \sigma _Z^2\frac {1 + 2\alpha \beta + \beta ^2}{1 - \alpha ^2} , \qquad \gamma (1) = \sigma _Z^2\frac {(1 + \alpha \beta )(\alpha + \beta )}{1 - \alpha ^2} , \\ \gamma (k) = \alpha \gamma (k - 1) \quad (k \ge 2) . \end {gather*} So \[ \rho (1) = \frac {(1 + \alpha \beta )(\alpha + \beta )}{1 + 2\alpha \beta + \beta ^2} , \qquad \rho (k) = \alpha ^{k-1}\rho (1) \quad (k \ge 1) . \]
Proof. By Proposition 9.2.1, \(\psi _0 = 1\) and \(\psi _j = (\alpha + \beta )\alpha ^{j-1}\) for \(j \ge 1\). Then, as for an MA process, \begin {align*} \gamma (0) &= \sigma _Z^2\sum _{j\ge 0}\psi _j^2 = \sigma _Z^2\Bigl [1 + (\alpha + \beta )^2\sum _{j\ge 1}\alpha ^{2(j-1)}\Bigr ] \\ &= \sigma _Z^2\Bigl [1 + \frac {(\alpha + \beta )^2}{1 - \alpha ^2}\Bigr ] = \sigma _Z^2\frac {1 + 2\alpha \beta + \beta ^2}{1 - \alpha ^2} , \\ \gamma (1) &= \sigma _Z^2\sum _{j\ge 0}\psi _j\psi _{j+1} = \sigma _Z^2\Bigl [(\alpha + \beta ) + (\alpha + \beta )^2\sum _{j\ge 1}\alpha ^{2j-1}\Bigr ] \\ &= \sigma _Z^2(\alpha + \beta )\Bigl [1 + \frac {\alpha (\alpha + \beta )}{1 - \alpha ^2}\Bigr ] , \end {align*}
and \(1 - \alpha ^2 + \alpha ^2 + \alpha \beta = 1 + \alpha \beta \) gives the stated \(\gamma (1)\). For \(k \ge 2\), multiply the model by \(X_{t-k}\) and take expectations: \(X_{t-k}\) involves only shocks up to time \(t - k\), so \(E(X_{t-k}Z_t) = E(X_{t-k}Z_{t-1}) = 0\), leaving \(\gamma (k) = \alpha \gamma (k - 1)\). □
So the ac.f. of an ARMA(1,1) starts from a value \(\rho (1)\) fixed by both parameters and then decays geometrically at the AR rate \(\alpha \). In general the ac.f. of an ARMA(\(p, q\)) satisfies the AR Yule–Walker recursion for \(k > q\), so it tails off like that of an AR process, after \(q\) irregular starting values. Neither the ac.f. nor (as Section 11 shows) the partial ac.f. cuts off, which is what makes mixed models harder to identify.
Example 9.3.2. Find the ac.f. and variance of the process of Example 9.2.2.
Solution. With \(\alpha = 0.5\) and \(\beta = -0.3\), \(1 + 2\alpha \beta + \beta ^2 = 1 - 0.3 + 0.09 = 0.79\) and \((1 + \alpha \beta )(\alpha + \beta ) = 0.85 \times 0.2 = 0.17\). So \begin {gather*} \gamma (0) = \frac {0.79}{0.75}\sigma _Z^2 = 1.053\sigma _Z^2 , \qquad \rho (1) = \frac {0.17}{0.79} = 0.215 , \\ \rho (k) = 0.215(0.5)^{k-1} . \end {gather*} As a check, \(\sum \psi _j^2 = 1 + 0.04/0.75 = 1.0533\). The MA term with \(\beta = -0.3\) partly cancels the AR term, so \(\rho (1)\) is much smaller than the \(0.5\) of the AR(1) alone.
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