8.5 Practice problems
Problem 8.5.1. Let \(\{N(t)\}_{t\geq 0}\) be a Poisson process with rate \(\lambda \), and let \(S_1,S_2,\dots \) be the successive arrival times. Set \(X_1=S_1\) and \(X_k=S_k-S_{k-1}\) for \(k\geq 2\).
- (a)
- Define a Poisson process.
- (b)
- Show that the durations \(\{X_k,\ k\geq 1\}\) are exponentially distributed.
- (c)
- Find the distribution of the arrival time of the \(n\)th event, \(S_n\).
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Solution.
(a)
A counting process \(\{N(t),\ t\geq 0\}\) is a Poisson process with rate \(\lambda >0\) if
- (i)
- \(N(0)=0\);
- (ii)
- it has independent increments: for any \(0<t_1<t_2<t_3<t_4\), \(N(t_2)-N(t_1)\) is independent of \(N(t_4)-N(t_3)\);
- (iii)
- it has stationary increments: the distribution of the number of events in an interval depends only on the length of the interval;
- (iv)
- the number of events in an interval of length \(t\) is Poisson with mean \(\lambda t\): \[P\left (N(t+s)-N(s)=k\right ) = \frac {(\lambda t)^{k}}{k!}e^{-\lambda t}, \qquad k=0,1,2,\dots \]
(b)
The first arrival comes after time \(t\) exactly when there is no event in \([0,t]\), so \[P(X_1>t) = P\left (N(t)=0\right ) = e^{-\lambda t}.\] Hence \(P(X_1\leq t) = 1-e^{-\lambda t}\) and \(f_{X_1}(t) = \lambda e^{-\lambda t}\) for \(t>0\): \(X_1\) is exponential with parameter \(\lambda \).
For \(X_2\), condition on the first arrival. By independent increments, and then by stationary increments, \begin {align*} P(X_2>t\mid X_1=s) &= P\left (\text {no arrival in }(s,s+t]\mid X_1=s\right )\\ &= P\left (\text {no arrival in }(s,s+t]\right )\\ &= P\left (\text {no arrival in }(0,t]\right )\\ &= P\left (N(t)=0\right ) = e^{-\lambda t}. \end {align*}
This does not depend on \(s\), so \(P(X_2\leq t) = 1-e^{-\lambda t}\) and \(X_2\) is exponential with parameter \(\lambda \), independent of \(X_1\). Conditioning on \(S_{k-1}\) in the same way gives the result for every \(X_k\), by induction.
(c)
The \(n\)th event has happened by time \(t\) exactly when at least \(n\) events have occurred in \([0,t]\): \(N(t)\geq n\) if and only if \(S_n\leq t\). Hence \[F_{S_n}(t) = P(S_n\leq t) = P\left (N(t)\geq n\right ) = \sum _{k=n}^{\infty }e^{-\lambda t}\frac {(\lambda t)^{k}}{k!}.\] Differentiating term by term, \begin {align*} f_{S_n}(t) &= \sum _{k=n}^{\infty }\lambda e^{-\lambda t}\frac {(\lambda t)^{k-1}}{(k-1)!} - \sum _{k=n}^{\infty }\lambda e^{-\lambda t}\frac {(\lambda t)^{k}}{k!}\\ &= \lambda e^{-\lambda t}\left [\frac {(\lambda t)^{n-1}}{(n-1)!} + \sum _{k=n+1}^{\infty }\frac {(\lambda t)^{k-1}}{(k-1)!} - \sum _{k=n}^{\infty }\frac {(\lambda t)^{k}}{k!}\right ]. \end {align*}
The two remaining sums are the same series term for term, so they cancel, and \[f_{S_n}(t) = \lambda e^{-\lambda t}\frac {(\lambda t)^{n-1}}{(n-1)!}, \qquad t>0 ,\] the gamma density with shape \(n\) and rate \(\lambda \). This agrees with (b): \(S_n = X_1+X_2+\cdots +X_n\) is a sum of \(n\) independent exponentials.
Problem 8.5.2. Travellers arrive at a bus station according to a Poisson process with rate \(\lambda \). If the bus departs at time \(t\), what is the expected sum of the waiting times of the travellers arriving in \((0,t)\)? That is, find \[E\left [\sum _{k=1}^{N(t)}\left (t-S_k\right )\right ],\] where \(S_k\) is the arrival time of the \(k\)th traveller.
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Solution. Condition on \(N(t)\). Given \(N(t)=n\), \[E\left [\sum _{k=1}^{N(t)}(t-S_k)\,\middle |\,N(t)=n\right ] = nt - E\left [\sum _{k=1}^{n}S_k\,\middle |\,N(t)=n\right ].\] Given \(N(t)=n\), the arrival times \(S_1,\dots ,S_n\) are distributed as the order statistics of \(n\) independent uniform variables on \((0,t)\). So with \(U_1,\dots ,U_n\) independent UNIF\((0,1)\), \[E\left [\sum _{k=1}^{n}S_k\,\middle |\,N(t)=n\right ] = tE\left [\sum _{k=1}^{n}U_{(k)}\right ] = tE\left [\sum _{k=1}^{n}U_k\right ] = t\sum _{k=1}^{n}\frac 12 = \frac {nt}{2},\] the middle step because putting the \(U_k\) in order does not change their sum. Hence \[E\left [\sum _{k=1}^{N(t)}(t-S_k)\,\middle |\,N(t)=n\right ] = nt-\frac {nt}{2} = \frac {nt}{2},\] and taking the expectation over \(N(t)\), which has mean \(\lambda t\), \[E\left [\sum _{k=1}^{N(t)}(t-S_k)\right ] = E\left [\frac {t}{2}N(t)\right ] = \frac {t}{2}E\left [N(t)\right ] = \frac {\lambda t^{2}}{2}.\]
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